American International Group Inc shares are
expected to settle back to a level in the mid-USD
40 range once the company's recently approved
warrants begin trading, a person familiar with the
situation said on Monday.
But even at that level, the government would still
be looking at a USD 27 bn paper profit on its
investment, which it could begin to realize with
public share offerings as soon as mid-May, the
person said.
AIG said last week its board approved the issue of warrants to purchase 75
mn common shares, one of the last key
milestones in its recapitalization plan. A person
familiar with the situation said last Friday the
warrant issue meant the recapitalisation would
close this week.
The person who spoke on Monday, on condition
of anonymity because he could not speak
publicly, said the market had likely been
anticipating the value of the warrants as AIG
shares rose sharply over the last month.
AIG shares closed at USD 57.39 on Monday. The
stock is up 36% since December 8, when the the
final version of the recapitalization plan was
agreed.
The government rescued AIG from the brink of
failure in September 2008. The company, once
the world's largest insurer, was bailed out to the
tune of USD 182 bn by taxpayers.
The recapitalization, first agreed last September, is
a complicated deal that involves repaying the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and
concentrating the government's stake in the
hands of the US Treasury Department.
The Treasury will own 92.1% of AIG when the
deal closes, a stake it intends to sell. The person
who spoke last Friday said AIG was looking at a
Treasury sale of a substantial stake as soon as
March, although May was more likely.
Sources have said there could be a second large
sale later this year as well, leaving the
government with a smaller remaining position to
be closed out in 2012.
Other sales coming
The first sale could happen in March, but is more
likely after mid-May following AIG's filing of its
report for the first quarter, the person said on
Monday. The source suggested investors would
need time to digest the "new" AIG in the first
months of the year before a share sale.
In addition to the AIG share sales, it is likely the
company would sell some of its large
investments in insurers MetLife Inc and AIA
Group Ltd this year as well, the source said. Each
sale could top USD 6 bn in market value, the
source added.
AIG acquired the MetLife shares through the sale
of its Alico business to MetLife. The shares are
currently under a lockup and subject to certain
restrictions after the lockup ends, but a single
large sale is still possible, the person said.
The AIA shares are not subject to such
restrictions once a lockup ends, meaning they
could be traded freely.
Stunning turnaround
All of the share and asset sales are successful, it
would mark a stunning turnaround for a
company that as recently as two years ago was
fully involved in a breakup plan and still
contemplating bankruptcy.
Instead, what has emerged is a company with a
domestic life insurance business (SunAmerica)
and one of the world's largest property and
casualty insurers (Chartis).
Insiders and outsiders alike give much of the
credit for the company's turnaround to its hard-
charging chief executive, Robert Benmosche.
Benmosche, who took over as CEO in August
2009, has continued working a full schedule and
traveling the world, despite being in aggressive
chemotherapy for cancer.
Benmosche intends to stay on until 2012,
although he is expected to decide as soon as next
month whether his health will allow it. AIG has
said board chairman Steve Miller would step in as
interim CEO if Benmosche cannot continue.
Miller, a restructuring expert, would stay on until
the board picked a successor. It has already
received a list of internal candidates from
Benmosche, although much of the speculation
centers on SunAmerica boss Jay Wintrob.
Whoever runs the company after Benmosche
will still have a number of key decisions to make,
such as what to do with aircraft leasing business
ILFC and whether keeping SunAmerica and
Chartis together in one holding company makes
the most sense for the long term.
Source: Http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/large-aig-share-salestrack-this-year-source_512052.html
Large AIG share sales on track this year: Source.
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